A budget built on one exchange rate is a guess with a spreadsheet around it. For many Nigerian firms, imported inputs, dollar-priced software and foreign loans mean the rate can change the year more than any sales plan.
Plan in ranges
Instead of one number, build three cases: the rate stays near today, it weakens moderately, or it weakens sharply. For each, work out what happens to costs, prices, margins and cash. The point is not to predict the rate, which nobody can do reliably, but to know in advance what you will do in each case.
The question is not where the rate will go. It is what you will do when it gets there.
Know your exposure
List every cost and every debt that moves with the rate, and every revenue line that can be repriced. Many finance teams find their exposure is larger than they thought, hidden in maintenance contracts, licences and spare parts.
Agree triggers
Agree with the board what you will do at each level: when to reprice, when to pause imports, when to draw on credit lines. Decisions made calmly in March are better than ones made in a panic in September.
This piece is general information for managers, not investment or financial advice, and it promises no particular result.
For your team
Three questions to discuss
Where are we today?
Score your organisation honestly against the ideas above.
Who decides?
Name the person who owns this issue, and the date it will be reviewed.
What would we stop?
Every new habit needs something old to make room for it.
Questions
Readers ask
Can I contact the author?
Faculty answer questions at information sessions, or through the admissions office.
Is this advice for my company?
It is general information. For your own situation, speak to your advisers.
Where can I learn more?
The related programme page lists the sessions that cover this topic.
Not sure which programme is yours?
Put two or three programmes side by side in the comparer, check the entry requirements against your own experience, then talk to an admissions adviser.